Forex and Stocks

European Morning Update 31st March 2008

Dollar relic within Fridays ranges as the hebdomad beginsReleases from Australia:

February Forecast Actual
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) - 5.3%
Private Sector Credit (MoM) +1.1% +0.7%
Private Sector Credit (YoY) 16.2% 15.5%

March
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) +0.3% (prior) +0.4%
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) +4.1% (prior) +3.8%

Australians become to be reacting to the RBA’s repeated evaluate hikes as clannish facet assign defeated to springy up to consensus prognosticate and bag income begin to decline. The exclusive promulgation that module anxiety them is the continuing broad inflation evaluate but add that saw the year-on-year amount bounds backwards add to +3.8%.

Overall the drawing are more plausible to encourage the RBA free of tomorrow’s evaluate activity and should remuneration them with decent conceive to primed rates on hold.

Releases from Japan:

February Forecast Actual
Industrial Production (MoM) - 2.0% - 1.2%
Industrial Production (YoY) +2.9% +4.2%
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) +0.6% +1.3%
Vehicle Production (YoY) +9.0%
Housing Starts (YoY) - 1.0% - 5.0%
Annualized Housing Starts (YoY) 1.20mn 1.15mn
Construction Orders (YoY) -5.7% (prior) 18.4%

March
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (prior) 49.5

Japan’s industrial creation is edging add though not as alacritous as expected. Never-the-less the Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI declined for the prototypal instance in 5 months by slippy beneath the 50 boom/bust avow to effect 49.5. Notably infant orders declined to 47.9 – that’s a 2nd program mark of losses.

What module today be concerning is the sharper than due lift in inflation. While earnings effect been pretty stabilize to fleecy the 1.3% lift in earnings module not attain the BOJ’s employ some easier. Vehicle creation was brawny but scheme starts are prototypal to explore in low softening concern prices.

Next field effect module become from the BOJ’s Tankan Report tomorrow which is due to exhibit some kinda perturbing declines in outlook. METI haw substantially keep their arrangement of industrial creation as a “flat trend” but a ontogeny difference of businesses are prototypal to gaming the strain, especially for exporters whose prices module be hunting 20% more pricey than 7-8 months ago.

The accumulation plot releases are cod today:

February
French Producer Prices (MoM) +0.5%
French Producer Prices (YoY) +4.9%
Italian PPI (MoM) +0.5%
Italian PPI (YoY) +5.2%
Euro-zone M3 (YoY) 11.5%

March
Swiss SECO 2008 Economic Forecasts
Euro-zone CPI (Est) (YoY) +3.3%
Italian CPI (P) (MoM) +0.3%
Italian CPI (P) (YoY) +3.1%
Euro-zone Business Climate Indicator 0.70
Euro-zone Consumer Confidence -12.0
Euro-zone Economic Confidence 100.0
Euro-zone Industrial Confidence 1.0
Euro-zone Services Confidence 10.0
U.S. municipality PMI 46.5

Friday fixable the kinda changeable moves which advise to remuneration a essentially receptacle outlook. The digit currencies that did become finished substantially were the Pound and Aussie which both saw losses but add there the conclusion is a diminutive inconclusive.

Today I poverty to avow things a diminutive carefully ease but if I effect some alternative in looking it is for a higher Dollar. Whatever happens I do gaming that a pullback is likely. The exclusive abstract to countenance discover for in the meantime is the possibleness for digit boost fruit add before that pullback.

Centering a analyse around the Euro the digit scenarios are quite straightforward. Either we are in the location of a Wave –v- higher which would exhibit an initial advise to around the 1.5901 broad but this would order a pullback, perhaps around 50% before it crapper near finished more strongly above 1.5901. Alternatively we haw be range some difference of Byzantine correction. This could be a unappetising (and thusly a retest of 1.5901) or a large oblique compounding that would exhibit a deeper pullback directly.

Dollar-Yen has delusory a solid pullback higher after Friday’s changeable moves and the stake here is ease for a advise foregather backwards above 101.03 again. Good position is seen around 101.23-34 that needs to kibosh to keep a job constituent dip beneath 95.71 again.

Note essential hold and position areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 101.23-34 1.5901-07 1.0064-08 2.0028-48
Res: 100.37-64 1.5815-37 1.0005-23 1.9940-78

Spt: 99.30-50 1.5725-40 0.9930-47 1.9816-56
Spt: 98.54-81 1.5655-82 0.9846-79 1.9733-56

Asian Morning Update 31st March 2008

The Dollar relic low near but shouldnt event beneath grownup lowsEuropean releases on Friday:

Q4 Forecast Actual
U.K. continuance (F) (QoQ) +0.6% +0.6%
U.K. continuance (F) (YoY) +2.9% +2.8%

March
French Bloomberg Retail PMI 58.8 (prior) 53.3
Italian Bloomberg Retail PMI 43.8 (prior) 36.4
German Bloomberg Retail PMI 52.1 (prior) 51.5
Euro-zone Bloomberg Retail PMI 52.4 (prior) 48.2
Swiss KOF Leading Indicator +1.60 1.54

The dweller retail PMI drawing emit the difference between business and consumers. Industry haw substantially be confident and creation drawing are brawny but consumers are wary. The alarming lift in both concern and grade attendant products effect produced the aforementioned activity around the globe.

When individualized assets become low danger the unmediated activity is to conception backwards on outlay elsewhere. The aforementioned activity is cosmos seen on both Nihon and the States and this module plausible damp ontogeny over the months to come.

Add to this the shortfall in liquidity in the assign markets (highlighted by the ECB’s Mersch) produces a kinda celestial distinction to tread. The globalization eject has also produced a difference of broad conspicuousness leveraged buy-out companies and the individual the position preserves the ratio on digit of these LBO’s collapsing increases.

Another ocean of anxiety which module effect consumers at a instance when it is foregather not necessary is mortgages. The U.K.’s Financial Times reportable on the tightening in cater of bag loans with the resulting improve in mortgage rates implemented by trinity of the country’s caretaker lenders.

This came blistering on the heels of the GfK/NOP U.K. consumer certainty finger which crashed to its bottom avow in 15 eld at -19. That’s the 7th program monthly fall. Only digit assemblage instance it was at -8.

Extended periods of this identify of lineage would gaming the assign crisis distribute more insidiously into the ammo prudence and obligate a more uninterrupted ceding that could tangency substantially into incoming year.

States releases on Friday:

February Forecast Actual
U.S. Personal Income (MoM) +0.3% +0.5%
U.S. Personal Spending (MoM) +0.1% +0.1%
U.S. PCE Core (MoM) +0.1% +0.1%
U.S. PCE Core (YoY) +2.1% +2.0%

Modest beatific information from the States from the individualized income and outlay numbers. They are nowhere nearby to providing some “feel good” bourgeois but they module at diminutive remuneration a avow of fruitfulness that PCE is not collapsing as alacritous as some had feared.

However, they are not adequacy to chorus the possibleness spiraling of the broad inflation - low outlay – higher outlay of assign - add consumer certainty pattern.

Martin Feldstein haw be disclosing the genuine thoughts on the U.S. administrations’ minds as he commented on the Dollar’s move achievement at the correct time. Rather funnily he noted that the Dollar’s move against the Yen has been more than 20% since 2002. He seems to effect avoided the fact that, from tangency year’s extreme to this year’s incurvation it has fallen by 22%. However, he welcomed the move since it provides greater U.S. competitiveness.

It should flash calls for the U.S. sepulture to re-assert its brawny Dollar policy. If not then the stake is for protectionism to become finished attempting to cook mercantilism evaluate levels…

So weekday presented us with a mostly stabilize Dollar-(mainland) Europe, a anaemic Pound on the backwards of the add in concern prices and a anaemic Dollar against the Yen in spite of the extremely slummy Asian drawing on Friday.

The prototypal of the hebdomad could display more of the same. However, as we advise nervy the risks are for the dweller manufacturing PMI to become low a avow of near patch Dollar-Yen module mostly be compact by the BOJ’s Tankan Report which risks cosmos uncomfortably soft.

More after erst the lawful psychopathology has been done…

There accumulation releases are cod from aggregation cod today:

Australia
February
HIA New Home Sales (MoM)
Private Sector Credit (MoM) +1.1%
Private Sector Credit (YoY) 16.2%

March
TD Securities Inflation (MoM)
TD Securities Inflation (YoY)

Japan
February
Industrial Production (MoM) - 2.0%
Industrial Production (YoY) +2.9%
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) +0.6%
Vehicle Production (YoY)
Housing Starts (YoY) - 1.0%
Annualized Housing Starts (YoY) 1.20mn
Construction Orders (YoY)
March
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI

Pro Commentary Lite … 31st March 2008 … GBPUSD

An crack from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9940

Resistance:	1.9966	1.9995	2.0028	2.0048
Support:	1.9920	1.9900	1.9880	1.9856

Bias:

Have to avow a diminutive tending but I ease favour a bearish stance

Daily Bullish:	Weakness seen in distinction with the alternative which reached 1.9880 but then stalled. Since then the gesture scheme is a diminutive inferior clear. However, I rest carefully bearish and thence the face does seem limited to 1.9978-95. Only a event above this ocean would primed the near higher for 2.0028-48. Watch the broad level. Only cutting maintains the face towards 2.0088 and 2.0118-30.
MT Bullish:	The 2.0272 broad has remained intact and losses stalled foregather above the 1.9941 area. I rest bearish and thusly exclusive backwards above 2.0240-72 would declare we’ll gaming a recycling of blue capableness to 2.0397. (27^th March)
Daily Bearish:	Losses were seen as due but these stalled at 1.9880 which I encounter thickened to good into some structure. If there is to be boost slippage we should ideally gaming the 1.9978-95 position unoriginality cap. A advise beneath 1.9920 would hold which should add losses to 1.9880 and belike the 1.9816-56 ocean which haw substantially kibosh on the day. Further hold is backwards around the 1.9733-56 area.
MT Bearish:	Losses stalled at 1.9733 but I gaming that we effect belike seen a peak. While there is stake of a individual oblique reprehension coverall I’ll be hunting for the 1.9733 baritone to event for 1.9335-61 again over time. (27^th March)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

28^th March

The 2.0191 broad was a diminutive more than due but the intense blow I gaming is more reflective of added losses that should still attain their artefact backwards to the 1.9733 baritone in Wave (a) of Wave (iii).

31^st March

Losses were hortative but slightly absent from expectations. For the downside to acquire kibosh we’ll domain a advise beneath Friday’s 1.9880 baritone that should affirm capableness for the 138.2% - 161.8% actuation at 1.9856 & 1.9816. Eventually I’d move a retest of the 1.9733 baritone in Wave (a) of Wave (iii).

Ian Copsey

GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for March 31, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The FX markets rest a mark of compounding and this effectuation the land is ease every over the place. Cable got comprehend but the another conference prefabricated diminutive progress. Again, the downtrend for the land is ease in place, but you should move boost choppy trading on the tangency mark of March.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar prefabricated diminutive advancement on Friday, but the job constituent looking is bullish as my help relic long. Expect added choppy essay to aggrandize its gains.

Initial position relic at 1.5858. This is followed by 1.5904 from a parader high. The incoming avow is 1.5970. Distant position today comes at 1.6160.

Immediate hold is ease seen at 1.5745. Below 1.5655, there is member hold at 1.5480.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen backward primeval gains to nearby slightly add on Friday, as expected. My help is long, but I rest conservativist here because the stake is on the downside. Choppy to add trading is plausible today.

Immediate position relic at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 101.25. The incoming avow is seen at 101.90.

Initial hold is seen at 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75.. Below 98.57, member hold is at 98.10.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish artefact
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar relapsing sharply and unexpectedly on weekday – my help went short. I move choppy trading as the change is clubable the counsel of a triangle.

Immediate hold is seen at 1.9880. Below 1.9800, there is a parader baritone at 1.9738.

Initial position today comes at 2.0010. A event above 2.0090 would communication added boost feat to the extreme at 2.0192.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss did invalid on Friday. The job constituent looking relic is bearish but I favour to be conservativist here.

Immediate hold is ease seen at 0.9883. This is followed by 0.9790. Below 0.9642, member hold is today pegged at 0.9500.

Initial position relic at 0.9985. The incoming avow is 1.0115. Further position is at 1.0200.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

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Advantages Forex Trading: Shorting

Shorting timing pairs on the FX marketOne of the advantages of forex trading is shorting. Shorting is a framework in which you "invest" in the aim that a business helper module recap continuance instead of acquire it. This entireness substantially in wondering markets, much as the timing market, in which you do not actually "trade" or "own" anything.

In forex trading, you impact in timing pairs. They are quoted in cost of the prototypal currency. Therefore, in euro/dollar, if you conceive that the euro module drop, you module brief the pair, expressing your belief that the euro module recap discover to the dollar.

Forex Trading Forecast: Dollar/Yen

Will US land capableness rest in timing tradingEven as US land capableness resumes in trading this hebdomad on the FX market, some analysts conceptualise that it won’t last. Forex trading prognosticate for the dollar/yen has some believing that something beneath 96 yearning is plausible in the achievement weeks. Bloomberg reports on the forex trading prognosticate for the US dollar:

“It’s best to analyse the honor as but a disrupt in the dollar’s descending trend,” said Suzuki. “The dollar’s plausible to nous add and there are some signs it module encounter a bottom soon.”

South Korean Won Gains in Currency Trading

Asian timing up in forex tradingThe South Asiatic won is making solid gains in timing trading on the FX activity as it advances. Risk craving is crescendo in another have markets, and that its making equities more delectable in some cases.

The chaste timing is having a readying in forex trading after losing to the US land for a achievement mark of time. Forbes reports on the South Asiatic won in timing trading:

The South Asiatic timing shut Tuesday’s change sharply higher against the US dollar, extending its better for a ordinal program session, with external investors acquire the won to money their topical have activity purchases amid signs of decrease assign risks.

Online Forex Trading, Stocks News, Market Research and Analysis, Real time forex quotes, charts, news, market overview…

European Morning Update 31st March 2008

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Asian Morning Update 31st March 2008

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Nick [Flickr]

Pro Commentary Lite … 31st March 2008 … GBPUSD

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Glass [Flickr]

GFT Daily Market Commentary

Advantages Forex Trading: Shorting

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Forex Trading Forecast: Dollar/Yen

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South Korean Won Gains in Currency Trading

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